modeling and simulation
Afshin Aminipour; Akbar Bagheri; Hamidreza Kordlooie
Abstract
The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of banking fintech on the risk levels of selected banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population consists of 41 banks and credit institutions listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, according to the latest report by the Central Bank ...
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The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of banking fintech on the risk levels of selected banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population consists of 41 banks and credit institutions listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, according to the latest report by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran in May 2022. Using a systematic elimination method and covering the period from 2019 to 2022, a sample of 8 banks was chosen. The results of hypothesis testing, based on the first and second models of the study (with Z-Score and business risk of the studied banks as the dependent variables, respectively), showed that in the first model, under the dynamic condition (with lag), the banking fintech variable does not have a significant effect on the risk management index of the selected banks. Additionally, it was found that in the non-lagged model, the fintech innovation variable—through improved operational performance—and the variable of operational revenues, as well as each bank’s share of total transaction values from mobile payment acceptance tools, significantly impact the risk management index. Other findings also showed that in both models, under both lagged and non-lagged conditions, variables related to each bank’s share of transaction values from mobile, POS, and internet payment acceptance tools, as well as fintech innovation variables related to improved operational performance and capital adequacy, do not significantly affect the risk management index of the selected banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.IntroductionA review of the literature suggests that, while the academic community generally agrees on the impact of FinTech on commercial bank risks, unresolved issues still require further investigation. There remains significant disagreement over whether FinTech’s influence on commercial bank risk is "favorable" or "unfavorable." This divergence may be attributed to the varying socioeconomic and institutional contexts in which FinTech operates, as previous studies have not adequately captured these dynamic effects. Therefore, further research is needed to explore these variations and examine the nonlinear effects of FinTech on commercial bank risks. As a result, further discussion on the potential relationship between FinTech risks and commercial bank risk is necessary. Given the significance of this issue, the present study aims to address this critical topic.Literature ReviewWith the rapid growth of financial technologies, fintech has emerged as a transformative force in financial and banking services, significantly impacting areas such as investment management, digital payments, service personalization, cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain. Its high agility has facilitated access to financial services, reduced costs, and improved the efficiency of banks. However, the boundary between fintech and traditional electronic banking is often unclear, and fintech's entry into the financial sector has introduced risks such as data security threats, transaction instability, and challenges to conventional banking structures, which require thorough evaluation. Most previous studies have focused on the benefits and innovative aspects of fintech, while empirical investigations into the impact of fintech innovation on operational, technological, and structural risks—especially in the context of Iranian banks—remain limited and fragmented. This study aims to identify and analyze these risks, addressing the existing research gap and supporting more informed decision-making by banking managers in the face of modern financial technologies. Table 1 presents a summary of the research background based on selected international studies. The review of these studies primarily focuses on the credit and liquidity risks of banks in relation to lending objectives and default risk.Table 1: presents a summary of the research backgroundStudy ResultsResearchers / YearRowThe development of fintech leads to a reduction in bank-generated liquidity and contributes to the diversification of banking services.Tang et al. (2024)1Greater fintech presence is associated with higher risk-taking by financial intermediaries, and the findings support the competition fragility hypothesis.Alkhodair et al. (2024)2Fintech products reduce banks' risk-taking behavior by improving operational efficiency. Path analysis results also showed that operational efficiency mediates the relationship between fintech products and bank risk-taking behavior in emerging countries.Sajid et al. (2023)4An empirical analysis of the relationship between fintech, digital transformation, and bank risk in 32 Chinese banks revealed that fintech increases bank risk and has a stronger effect on banks with lower levels of digitalization.Li et al. (2021)5Payment and settlement technology (PST), capital raising technology (CRT), and investment management technology (IMT) are positively correlated with bank risk-taking.Zhao et al. (2022)8Reference: Research FindingsMethodologyThis study is applied in terms of results, causal-correlational in terms of purpose, retrospective in terms of time, quantitative in terms of execution process, and follows a combination of deduction and induction (scientific research method) in terms of logic. This study is quasi-experimental. In such studies, the researcher has no control over the data generation process. The required data for this study, which results from various processes within companies and the transactions in the securities market, are obtained from databases. The research hypotheses are then tested using the available data. From another perspective, this research follows a positivist approach, meaning that the researcher seeks to discover what exists rather than prescribing any specific recommendations. Instead, suggestions are provided based on the discovered findings.ResultsNowadays, banks have begun competing beyond financial services in response to the increasing competition from non-banking institutions. As a result, traditional banks have lost a portion of their market share. The recent developments in financial services require banks to increase investment in fintech, reconsider service delivery channels, and enhance standardization in administrative and financial operations. Improving bank profitability and diversifying income sources can also lead to reduced risk-taking behavior. DiscussionDue to the significant impact of banking FinTech measured by each bank’s POS transaction share on risk management in Model 1 (no lag), banks are advised to actively pursue digital transformation strategies. As FinTech innovation, measured through operational revenue improvements, has a significant positive impact on risk management in Model 1, efforts should focus on strengthening this factor to boost risk control. Since the effect of FinTech via mobile and internet tools on risk management is insignificant, banks should prioritize the development of these tools to enhance commercial risk oversight. Given the lack of significant impact from FinTech innovation in terms of operational performance and capital adequacy in both models, reinforcing these areas is recommended to support risk control, regardless of model dynamics.
