Mohammad Reza Taghva; Yasser Alizadeh
Volume 3, Issue 11 , December 2005, , Pages 1-35
Abstract
Trend impact analysis (TIA) gives a pattern to use the chronological, quantitative data and qualitative techniques, ...
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Trend impact analysis (TIA) gives a pattern to use the chronological, quantitative data and qualitative techniques, simultaneously. Although both quantitative and qualitative techniques of forecasting have disadvantages, TIA gives a way to optimize the results of quantitative methods by applying the qualitative methods on them. This technique could be applied in all files of forecasting with complex to forecast variables such as Demand, Supply, Price and so on. Energy field meets the requirements of applying this technique, because there is a long term history of behavior of variables in it that could be used in quantitative forecasting techniques like Trend lines or time series, and also due to its importance in today economy, there are so many analysts and experts who are trying to forecast and foresight in oil field. So TIA as a proper technique for forecasting the oil price is described and applied here. The results of this forecasting which was included oil price in period of 2007 up to 2008, has been registered before in 2006 as a scientific paper, and now after about 18 months, we are comparing the results of the forecasting and actual data. Validation of the technique is the aim, which we got to it in this paper.
