Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Associate Professor of industrial management, Yazd University
2 Assistant Professor of industrial management, Yazd University
3 Ph.D. Student of Tourism Management, Allameh Tabataba’i University
Abstract
In the last few years, supply chain management becomes more important,
because of the globalization of business. By increasing complexity, level
of uncertainty and risk in the chain goes up. Hence supply chain risk management
has become a major issue in the organization. One of the risks
existing in the supply chain is risk of suppliers. This research provides
model for predicting supplier risk in Iran Alloy Steel Company that is then
analyzed using Artificial Neural Networks which are capable to consider
non-liner interrelations among criteria. In the model using fuzzy Delphi,
seven criteria have been identified. Then by using AHP-VIKOR the risk of
supplier calculated and the risk of suppliers were predicted. Finally, we use
sensitive analysis for identification effect of every input on output
Keywords
[1]. Blackhurst, J.V., Scheibe, K.P., & Johnson, D.J., “Supplier risk assessment and monitoring
for the automotive industry”, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics
Management, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2008, pp. 143-165.
[2]. Blos, M.F., Quaddus, M., Wee, H.M., & Watanabe, K., “Supply chain risk management
(SCRM): a case study on the automotive and electronic industries in Brazil”, Supply Chain
Management: an International Journal, Vol. 14, No. 4, 2009, pp. 247–252.
[3]. Bogataja, D., & Bogataj, M., “Measuring the supply chain risk and vulnerability in
frequency space”, International journal Production Economics, Vol. 108, 2007, pp. 291-301.
[4]. Chan, F.T.S., & Kumar, N., “Global supplier development considering risk factors using
fuzzy extended AHP-based approach”, The International Journal of Management Science, Vol.
35, No. 4, 2011, pp. 417-431.
[5]. Chang, P-T., “The fuzzy Delphi method via fuzzy statistics and membership function
fitting and application to the human resources”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 112, 1998.
[6]. Chen, L.Y., & Wang, T.C., “Optimizing partners’ choice in IS/IT out sourcing projects:
The strategic decision of fuzzy VIKOR”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 120,
2009, pp. 233–242.
[7]. Cheng, C-H., & Lin, Y., “Evaluating the best main battle tank using fuzzy decision
theory with linguistic criteria evaluation”, European. Journal of Operational Research, Vol.
142, No. 1, 2002, pp. 174-186
[8]. Cheng, T.C.E., Yip, F.K., & Yeung, A.C.L., “Supply risk management via guanxi in the
Chinese business context: The buyer’sperspective”, International Journal of Production
Economics, Vol. 139, No. 1, 2012, pp. 3-13.
[9]. Chopra, S., & Sodhi, M.S., “Managing risk to avoid supply chain breakdown”, MIT Sloan
Management Review, Vol. 46, No. 1, 2004, pp. 53-61.
[10]. Cucchiella, F., & Gastaldi, M., “Risk management in supply chain: a real option
approach”, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 17, No. 6, 2006, pp. 700-
720.
[11]. Duru, O., Bulut, E., & Yoshida, S., “A fuzzy extended DELPHI method for adjustment
of statistical time series prediction: An empirical study on dry bulk freight market case”,
Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 39, 2012, pp. 840–848
[12]. Faisal, M.N., Banwet, D.K., & Shankar, R., “Supply chain risk mitigation: modeling the
enablers”, Business Process Management Journal, Vol. 12, No. 4, 2006, pp. 535-552.
[13]. Hittle, B., & Leonard, K.M., “Decision making in advance of a supply chain crisis”,
Management Decision, Vol. 49, No. 7, 2011, pp. 1182-1193.
[14]. Hsu, Y-L., Lee, C-H., & Kreng, V.B., “The application of Fuzzy Delphi Method and
Fuzzy AHP in lubricant regenerative technology selection”, Expert Systems with
Applications, Vol. 37, 2010, pp. 419–425
[15]. Juttner, U., Peck, H., & Christopher, M., “Supply Chain Risk Management: Outlining an
Agend A for Future Research”, International Journal of Logistics: Research & Applications,
Vol. 6, No. 4, 2003, pp. 197-210.
[16]. Kara, S., Kayis, B., & Gomez, E., “Managing Supply Chain Risks in Multi-site, Multipartner
Engineering Projects”, Communications of the IBIMA, Vol. 5, 2008, pp. 100-112.
[17]. Kaya, T., & Kahraman, C., “Fuzzy multiple criteria forestry decision making based on
an integrated VIKOR and AHP approach”, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 38, 2011,
pp. 7326–7333.
20 مطالعات مدیریت صنعتی، سال یازدهم، شماره 30 ، پاییز 1392
[18]. Khan, O., Christopher, M., & Burnes, B., “The impact of product design on supply chain
risk: a case study”, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, Vol.
38, No. 5, 2008, pp. 412-432.
[19]. Li, S., Ragu-Nathan, B., Ragu-Nathan, T.S., & Rao, S.S., “The impact of supply chain
management practices on competitive advantage and organizational performance”, Omega,
Vol. 34, 2006, pp. 107– 124
[20]. Manuj, I., & Mentzer, J., “Global supply chain risk management strategies”,
International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2008,
pp. 192–223.
[21]. Micheli, G.J.L., Cagno, E., & Giulio, A.D., “Reducing the total cost of supply through
risk-efficiency-based supplier selection in the EPC industry”, Journal of Purchasing and
Supply Management, Vol. 15, 2009, pp. 166-177
[22]. Micheli, G.J.L., Cagno, E., & Zorzini, M., “Supply risk management vs supplier selection
to manage the supply risk in the EPC supply chain”, Management Research News, Vol. 31,
No. 11, 2008, pp. 846-866.
[23]. Moeinzadeh, P., & Hajfathaliha, A., “A Combined Fuzzy Decision Making Approach to
Supply Chain Risk Assessment”, International Journal of Human and Social Sciences, Vol. 5,
No. 13, 2010, pp. 859-875.
[24]. Norrman, A., & Jansson, U., “Ericsson’s proactive supply chain risk management
approach after a serious sub-supplier accident”, International Journal of Physical Distribution
and Logistics Management, Vol. 34, No. 5, 2004, pp. 434–456
[25]. Opricovic, S., & Tzeng, G.H., “Extended VIKOR method in comparison with
outranking methods”, European journal of operational research, Vol. 178, No. 2, 2007, pp. 514-
529.
[26]. Pujawan, I.N., & Geraldin, L.H., “House of risk: a model for proactive supply chain risk
management”, Business Process Management Journal, Vol. 15, No. 6, 2009, pp. 953-967.
[27]. Qinghua, W., Xiaozhong, X., Wenhao, T., Liang, H., “An Early-Warning Model for
Supply Chain Risk Based On the Balanced Scoring Card and BP Neural Networks”,
International Conference on Automation and Logistics Qingdao, 2008.
[28]. Sanchez-Rodrigues, V., Potter, A., & Naim, M.M., “Evaluating the causes of uncertainty
in logistics operations”, The International Journal of Logistics Management, Vol. 21, No. 1,
2010, pp. 45-64
[29]. Schoenherr, T., Tummalaa, V.M.R., & P. Harrison, T., “Assessing supply chain risks with
the analytic hierarchy process: Providing decision support for the offshoring decision by a
US manufacturing company”, Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, Vol. 14, 2008, pp.
100–111.
[30]. Tang, C.S., “Perspectives in supply chain risk management: a review”, International
Journal Production Economics, Vol. 103, 2006, pp. 451–488.
[31]. Tang, O., & Nurmaya Musa, S., “Identifying risk issues and research advancements in
supply chain risk management”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 133, 2011,
pp. 25–34.
[32]. Thun, J.H., & Hoenig, D., “An empirical analysis of supply chain risk management in
the German automotive industry”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 131, 2011,
pp. 242–249.
[33]. Trkman, P., & McCormack, K., “Supply chain risk in turbulent environments-A
conceptual model for managing supply chain network risk”, International Journal Production
Economics, Vol. 119, 2009, pp. 247–258.
[34]. Tuncel, G., & Alpan, G., “Risk assessment and management for supply chain networks:
طراحی مدلی براى ارزیابى ریسک در زنجیر هى تأمین با رویکرد شبک هى عصبى مصنوعى 21
A case study”, Computers in Industry, Vol. 61, 2010, pp. 250–259.
[35]. Vilko, J., “Approaches to supply chain risk management: identification, analysis and
control”, Lappeenranta University of Technology Digipaino, 2012.
[36]. Vilko, J., Hallikas, J.M., “Risk assessment in multi modal supply chains”, International
Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 140, 2012, pp. 586-595.
[37]. Wagner, S. M., & Neshat, N., “Assessing the vulnerability of supply chains using graph
theory”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 126, 2010, pp. 121–129.
[38]. Wang, Y., & Huang, L., “Risk Assessment of Supply chain Based on BP Neural
Network”, Second International Symposium on Knowledge Acquisition and Modeling, 2009.
[39]. Wu, T., Blackhurst, J., & Chidambaram, V., “A model for inbound supply risk analysis”,
Computers in Industry, Vol. 57, 2006, pp. 350–365.
[40]. Xia, D., & Chen, B., “A comprehensive decision-making model for risk management of
supply chain”, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 38, 2011, pp. 4957–4966.
[41]. Yao, Y.Y., Zhao, Y., & Maguire, R.B., “Explanationoriented association mining using a
combination of unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms”, Proceedings of the
Sixteenth Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2008.
[42]. Yi, C.Y., Ngai, E.W.T., & Moon, K.L., “Supply chain flexibility in an uncertain
environment: exploratory findings from five case studies”, Supply Chain Management: an
International Journal, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2011, pp. 271–283.
[43]. Zsidisin, G.A., & Ellram, L.M., “An agency theory investigation of supply risk
management”, Journal of Supply Chain Management, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2003, pp. 15–29
for the automotive industry”, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics
Management, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2008, pp. 143-165.
[2]. Blos, M.F., Quaddus, M., Wee, H.M., & Watanabe, K., “Supply chain risk management
(SCRM): a case study on the automotive and electronic industries in Brazil”, Supply Chain
Management: an International Journal, Vol. 14, No. 4, 2009, pp. 247–252.
[3]. Bogataja, D., & Bogataj, M., “Measuring the supply chain risk and vulnerability in
frequency space”, International journal Production Economics, Vol. 108, 2007, pp. 291-301.
[4]. Chan, F.T.S., & Kumar, N., “Global supplier development considering risk factors using
fuzzy extended AHP-based approach”, The International Journal of Management Science, Vol.
35, No. 4, 2011, pp. 417-431.
[5]. Chang, P-T., “The fuzzy Delphi method via fuzzy statistics and membership function
fitting and application to the human resources”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 112, 1998.
[6]. Chen, L.Y., & Wang, T.C., “Optimizing partners’ choice in IS/IT out sourcing projects:
The strategic decision of fuzzy VIKOR”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 120,
2009, pp. 233–242.
[7]. Cheng, C-H., & Lin, Y., “Evaluating the best main battle tank using fuzzy decision
theory with linguistic criteria evaluation”, European. Journal of Operational Research, Vol.
142, No. 1, 2002, pp. 174-186
[8]. Cheng, T.C.E., Yip, F.K., & Yeung, A.C.L., “Supply risk management via guanxi in the
Chinese business context: The buyer’sperspective”, International Journal of Production
Economics, Vol. 139, No. 1, 2012, pp. 3-13.
[9]. Chopra, S., & Sodhi, M.S., “Managing risk to avoid supply chain breakdown”, MIT Sloan
Management Review, Vol. 46, No. 1, 2004, pp. 53-61.
[10]. Cucchiella, F., & Gastaldi, M., “Risk management in supply chain: a real option
approach”, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 17, No. 6, 2006, pp. 700-
720.
[11]. Duru, O., Bulut, E., & Yoshida, S., “A fuzzy extended DELPHI method for adjustment
of statistical time series prediction: An empirical study on dry bulk freight market case”,
Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 39, 2012, pp. 840–848
[12]. Faisal, M.N., Banwet, D.K., & Shankar, R., “Supply chain risk mitigation: modeling the
enablers”, Business Process Management Journal, Vol. 12, No. 4, 2006, pp. 535-552.
[13]. Hittle, B., & Leonard, K.M., “Decision making in advance of a supply chain crisis”,
Management Decision, Vol. 49, No. 7, 2011, pp. 1182-1193.
[14]. Hsu, Y-L., Lee, C-H., & Kreng, V.B., “The application of Fuzzy Delphi Method and
Fuzzy AHP in lubricant regenerative technology selection”, Expert Systems with
Applications, Vol. 37, 2010, pp. 419–425
[15]. Juttner, U., Peck, H., & Christopher, M., “Supply Chain Risk Management: Outlining an
Agend A for Future Research”, International Journal of Logistics: Research & Applications,
Vol. 6, No. 4, 2003, pp. 197-210.
[16]. Kara, S., Kayis, B., & Gomez, E., “Managing Supply Chain Risks in Multi-site, Multipartner
Engineering Projects”, Communications of the IBIMA, Vol. 5, 2008, pp. 100-112.
[17]. Kaya, T., & Kahraman, C., “Fuzzy multiple criteria forestry decision making based on
an integrated VIKOR and AHP approach”, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 38, 2011,
pp. 7326–7333.
20 مطالعات مدیریت صنعتی، سال یازدهم، شماره 30 ، پاییز 1392
[18]. Khan, O., Christopher, M., & Burnes, B., “The impact of product design on supply chain
risk: a case study”, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, Vol.
38, No. 5, 2008, pp. 412-432.
[19]. Li, S., Ragu-Nathan, B., Ragu-Nathan, T.S., & Rao, S.S., “The impact of supply chain
management practices on competitive advantage and organizational performance”, Omega,
Vol. 34, 2006, pp. 107– 124
[20]. Manuj, I., & Mentzer, J., “Global supply chain risk management strategies”,
International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2008,
pp. 192–223.
[21]. Micheli, G.J.L., Cagno, E., & Giulio, A.D., “Reducing the total cost of supply through
risk-efficiency-based supplier selection in the EPC industry”, Journal of Purchasing and
Supply Management, Vol. 15, 2009, pp. 166-177
[22]. Micheli, G.J.L., Cagno, E., & Zorzini, M., “Supply risk management vs supplier selection
to manage the supply risk in the EPC supply chain”, Management Research News, Vol. 31,
No. 11, 2008, pp. 846-866.
[23]. Moeinzadeh, P., & Hajfathaliha, A., “A Combined Fuzzy Decision Making Approach to
Supply Chain Risk Assessment”, International Journal of Human and Social Sciences, Vol. 5,
No. 13, 2010, pp. 859-875.
[24]. Norrman, A., & Jansson, U., “Ericsson’s proactive supply chain risk management
approach after a serious sub-supplier accident”, International Journal of Physical Distribution
and Logistics Management, Vol. 34, No. 5, 2004, pp. 434–456
[25]. Opricovic, S., & Tzeng, G.H., “Extended VIKOR method in comparison with
outranking methods”, European journal of operational research, Vol. 178, No. 2, 2007, pp. 514-
529.
[26]. Pujawan, I.N., & Geraldin, L.H., “House of risk: a model for proactive supply chain risk
management”, Business Process Management Journal, Vol. 15, No. 6, 2009, pp. 953-967.
[27]. Qinghua, W., Xiaozhong, X., Wenhao, T., Liang, H., “An Early-Warning Model for
Supply Chain Risk Based On the Balanced Scoring Card and BP Neural Networks”,
International Conference on Automation and Logistics Qingdao, 2008.
[28]. Sanchez-Rodrigues, V., Potter, A., & Naim, M.M., “Evaluating the causes of uncertainty
in logistics operations”, The International Journal of Logistics Management, Vol. 21, No. 1,
2010, pp. 45-64
[29]. Schoenherr, T., Tummalaa, V.M.R., & P. Harrison, T., “Assessing supply chain risks with
the analytic hierarchy process: Providing decision support for the offshoring decision by a
US manufacturing company”, Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, Vol. 14, 2008, pp.
100–111.
[30]. Tang, C.S., “Perspectives in supply chain risk management: a review”, International
Journal Production Economics, Vol. 103, 2006, pp. 451–488.
[31]. Tang, O., & Nurmaya Musa, S., “Identifying risk issues and research advancements in
supply chain risk management”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 133, 2011,
pp. 25–34.
[32]. Thun, J.H., & Hoenig, D., “An empirical analysis of supply chain risk management in
the German automotive industry”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 131, 2011,
pp. 242–249.
[33]. Trkman, P., & McCormack, K., “Supply chain risk in turbulent environments-A
conceptual model for managing supply chain network risk”, International Journal Production
Economics, Vol. 119, 2009, pp. 247–258.
[34]. Tuncel, G., & Alpan, G., “Risk assessment and management for supply chain networks:
طراحی مدلی براى ارزیابى ریسک در زنجیر هى تأمین با رویکرد شبک هى عصبى مصنوعى 21
A case study”, Computers in Industry, Vol. 61, 2010, pp. 250–259.
[35]. Vilko, J., “Approaches to supply chain risk management: identification, analysis and
control”, Lappeenranta University of Technology Digipaino, 2012.
[36]. Vilko, J., Hallikas, J.M., “Risk assessment in multi modal supply chains”, International
Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 140, 2012, pp. 586-595.
[37]. Wagner, S. M., & Neshat, N., “Assessing the vulnerability of supply chains using graph
theory”, International Journal Production Economics, Vol. 126, 2010, pp. 121–129.
[38]. Wang, Y., & Huang, L., “Risk Assessment of Supply chain Based on BP Neural
Network”, Second International Symposium on Knowledge Acquisition and Modeling, 2009.
[39]. Wu, T., Blackhurst, J., & Chidambaram, V., “A model for inbound supply risk analysis”,
Computers in Industry, Vol. 57, 2006, pp. 350–365.
[40]. Xia, D., & Chen, B., “A comprehensive decision-making model for risk management of
supply chain”, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 38, 2011, pp. 4957–4966.
[41]. Yao, Y.Y., Zhao, Y., & Maguire, R.B., “Explanationoriented association mining using a
combination of unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms”, Proceedings of the
Sixteenth Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2008.
[42]. Yi, C.Y., Ngai, E.W.T., & Moon, K.L., “Supply chain flexibility in an uncertain
environment: exploratory findings from five case studies”, Supply Chain Management: an
International Journal, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2011, pp. 271–283.
[43]. Zsidisin, G.A., & Ellram, L.M., “An agency theory investigation of supply risk
management”, Journal of Supply Chain Management, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2003, pp. 15–29
)