نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• اکبر حسن نژاد قورولی ¹
• رضا احمدی کهنعلی ²
• حسن بیابانی ³

¹ گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه هرهزگان، بندرعباس، ایران

² گروه مدیریت دولتی و صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران

³ گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس ، ایران

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل سناریوهای آینده صنعت فرش دستباف ایران تا افق ۱۴۱۵ با رویکرد تحلیل مورفولوژی انجام شده است. این مطالعه از نوع کاربردی و توصیفی–تحلیلی بوده و با رویکرد ترکیبی اسنادی و میدانی صورت گرفته است. در بخش کیفی، ۴۲ پژوهش (۲۰ ایرانی و ۲۲ خارجی) و ده مصاحبه هدفمند با خبرگان صنعت فرش در استان آذربایجان شرقی انجام شد که منجر به شناسایی ۳۷ عامل مؤثر در این حوزه گردید. داده‌ها با بهره‌گیری از پرسشنامه‌های میک مک و ابزار مورفول تحلیل شدند و از میان آن‌ها ۱۱ عامل کلیدی شامل مشارکت ذی‌نفعان، نوآوری، هزینه تولید، فشار سرمایه‌گذاران، نهادهای پشتیبان، زیرساخت‌ها، نیاز بازار، تحریم‌ها، ثبات اقتصادی، بسته‌بندی و توانمندسازی بافندگان برای سناریونویسی انتخاب شدند. تحلیل کمی در چارچوب رویکرد سناریونویسی مبتنی بر مکتب لاپرسپکتیو فرانسه منجر به شناسایی ده سناریوی برتر شد. همچنین، تحلیل چرتکه راینر، ده سناریوی محتمل را در سه وضعیت خوش‌بینانه، بینابین و بدبینانه ارائه کرد که سناریوها عمدتاً تداوم وضعیت فعلی را نشان می‌دهند. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که عوامل محرک مانند مشارکت ذی‌نفعان، نوآوری و توانمندسازی بافندگان، رشد پایدار صنعت تا افق ۱۴۱۵ را تقویت می‌کنند؛ در حالی که تهدیدهای خارجی، فشار سرمایه‌گذاران و بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی نیازمند سیاست‌های حمایتی و مدیریت ریسک هستند. یافته‌ها می‌توانند به‌عنوان مبنایی معتبر برای تصمیم‌گیری سیاست‌گذاران و سرمایه‌گذاران جهت توسعه پایدار و افزایش رقابت‌پذیری زنجیره تأمین فرش دستباف ایران مورد استفاده قرار گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• صنعت فرش دستباف
• سناریونویسی
• مورفولوژی
• آینده پژوهی

موضوعات

• مدیریت زنجیره تامین

عنوان مقاله [English]

Scenario Planning of Iran’s Handwoven Carpet Supply Chain Using a Morphological Analysis Approach

نویسندگان [English]

• Akbar Hasan nezhad Ghorouli ¹
• Reza Ahmadi Kohnali ²
• Hasan Biabani ³

¹ Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Hormozgan University, Bandar Abbas, Iran

² Department of Public and Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Hormozgan University, Bandar Abbas, Iran

³ Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, Hormozgan University, Bandar Abbas, Iran

چکیده [English]

Despite the historical and economic significance of Iran's handwoven carpet industry, its global market share has declined dramatically due to supply chain inefficiencies and a lack of future-oriented planning. This study addresses the critical gap in systematic scenario planning for this industry's supply chain. It aims to identify key influencing factors and design plausible future scenarios up to the 1415 horizon using morphological analysis. A mixed-method approach was employed, combining a systematic literature review of 42 studies with ten semi-structured interviews with industry experts in East Azerbaijan Province. The MicMac software was used for structural analysis to identify 11 key drivers from an initial 37 factors. Subsequently, the Morphol software facilitated morphological analysis to generate and evaluate scenarios based on expert assessments of probabilities and preferential relationships. The analysis yielded ten scenarios with the highest probability, which were further categorized into optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic states using Reiner's abacus. The findings reveal that most scenarios indicate a continuation of the current, semi-stable state, with stakeholder participation consistently appearing as an optimistic driver. The primary contribution is the identification of ten distinct, internally consistent scenarios for the future of Iran's handwoven carpet supply chain, along with their inertia and quality indices. The research provides a strategic framework for policymakers, demonstrating that sustainable growth depends on simultaneously managing internal drivers (innovation, weaver empowerment) and macro-environmental variables (economic stability, sanctions). Practically, this framework offers a diagnostic and prescriptive tool, enabling managers and policymakers to adopt specific, scenario-based strategies to enhance resilience, competitiveness, and sustainability.
Introduction
The Iranian handwoven carpet industry is a strategic cultural and economic sector that has historically contributed to non-oil exports, employment generation, and rural development. Despite its long-standing global reputation, the industry has experienced a significant decline in international competitiveness. Export revenues have decreased from approximately US$690 million in 1999, representing 17.5% of Iran’s non-oil exports, to about US$41.7 million in 2024, accounting for less than 0.5% of total non-oil exports. At the same time, Iran’s global position in handwoven carpet exports has fallen from first to fourth place.
One of the main reasons for this decline is the inefficiency of the handwoven carpet supply chain, which extends from raw material production to marketing and export activities. Moreover, economic sanctions, market fluctuations, and changing consumer preferences have increased uncertainty regarding the future of the industry. Although previous studies have examined individual aspects of the carpet supply chain, no study has simultaneously applied MICMAC structural analysis and Morphological Analysis to explore its future. Therefore, this study aims to identify key driving forces, develop plausible future scenarios, and propose strategic actions for enhancing the resilience and competitiveness of Iran’s handwoven carpet supply chain.
Literature Review
Scenario planning is a widely applied foresight approach for addressing uncertainty and supporting strategic decision-making in complex environments (Varum & Melo, 2010; Cuhls, 2020). It is frequently integrated with methods such as MICMAC structural analysis and Morphological Analysis to identify key drivers, interdependencies, and plausible future scenarios. The literature on the Iranian carpet industry can be categorized into two main streams. The first stream focuses on machine-made carpet supply chains, where studies such as Mazrouei Nasrabadi (2022) and Jandaghi et al. (2021) applied MICMAC-based approaches to examine the ripple and bullwhip effects and to identify key sustainability drivers. The second stream relates to the handwoven carpet sector, where Soleimani Sarvestani et al. (2019) developed industry-level scenarios using a critical uncertainty approach, emphasizing macroeconomic conditions and sanctions. Other studies have addressed entrepreneurial competencies, cluster challenges, and supply chain development issues. However, these studies are either fragmented or limited to the industry level and fail to capture the dynamic interactions among economic, institutional, social, and international factors. Moreover, no study has integrated MICMAC structural analysis with Morphological Analysis to develop coherent future scenarios for the handwoven carpet supply chain, limiting strategic insights for decision-making.
Methodology
This applied research employs a descriptive-analytical and mixed-method design. In the qualitative phase, a systematic review of 42 studies (20 Iranian, 22 international) and 10 semi-structured interviews with experts in East Azerbaijan Province (average 12.8 years of experience) identified 37 influencing factors. In the quantitative phase, data were collected via surveys from 15 industry activists. The research process involved: 1) structural analysis using MICMAC software with a 37 × 37 cross-impact matrix to classify factors into driver, dependent, linkage, and independent groups; 2) selecting 11 key drivers for scenario development; 3) defining three states (optimistic, intermediate, pessimistic) and their probabilities for each driver via a questionnaire; 4) determining preferential relationships between these states; and 5) generating scenarios using Morphol software. Validity was confirmed by expert review, and reliability was ensured through MICMAC/Morphol algorithms and a Kappa coefficient of 0.79 for interviews.
Results
The structural analysis classified seven drivers (e.g., stakeholder participation, innovation) as key "driver" variables. The final 11 key drivers selected for scenario planning included stakeholder participation, innovation, production costs, investor pressure, supporting institutions, infrastructure, market needs, sanctions, economic stability, packaging, and weaver skills. The morphological analysis generated 100,000 combinations, which were filtered to 5,000 valid scenarios. The ten scenarios with the highest probability were selected. Analysis via Reiner's abacus and quality index (SQ) showed that all ten scenarios fall into the "intermediate" category (SQ between 1.8 and 2.13), indicating a future marked by a mix of opportunities and challenges rather than purely optimistic or pessimistic outcomes. Stakeholder participation was optimistic in all ten scenarios. The inertia analysis revealed that the first three scenarios have the highest stability, cumulatively accounting for 37.71% of the total inertia. The first scenario (highest probability) comprises 10 intermediate assumptions and one optimistic assumption (stakeholder participation), suggesting a semi-stable continuity of the current state. Other scenarios explore variations where sanctions, economic instability, or lack of innovation create pressure.
Discussion and Conclusion
This study successfully identified 37 factors and 11 key drivers shaping the future of Iran's handwoven carpet supply chain. The scenario planning results lead to a crucial conclusion: the most probable future is not a catastrophic collapse or a spontaneous leap, but a state of "conditional gradual growth." All ten high-probability scenarios fall into the "intermediate" category. The analysis confirms that the industry's future is highly dependent on the synergy between internal drivers (stakeholder participation, innovation, weaver empowerment) and macro-level factors (economic stability, sanctions). In the most likely scenario (Scenario 1), the industry remains semi-stable, requiring targeted policy interventions to shift towards a more desirable path. Scenarios with pessimistic states for economic stability or sanctions demonstrate that even strong internal cooperation can be neutralized by external shocks, highlighting the need for robust risk management and market diversification. Conversely, optimistic scenarios, where internal drivers improve alongside external conditions, reveal the industry's latent potential for becoming a competitive, export-oriented chain. The strategic implication is clear: a sustainable development strategy must rest on three complementary pillars: (1) strengthening internal supply chain foundations (human capital, innovation, infrastructure); (2) building resilience against economic shocks and external constraints; and (3) proactively seizing export opportunities in emerging markets. This framework provides a roadmap for policymakers to move beyond reactive crisis management toward a proactive, driver-based approach to ensure the resilience and competitiveness of Iran's handwoven carpet industry by 1415.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Handwoven carpet industry
• Scenario planning
• Morphology
• Future studies